Elsa Jacquemot vs Liudmila SamsonovaGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara Round of 32

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · WTA · Round of 32
#156WTA
1611ELO
1581Hard ELO
$809kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLLLLL
Sets
Tuesday, 15 September 2026 ·
hard
Estadio Skarch · 1st on
#50WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$9.2MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWWWLW
Jacquemot E.
vs
Samsonova L.

Elsa Jacquemot faces Liudmila Samsonova in the Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara round of 32 on hard. Liudmila Samsonova holds the paper edge — ranked #50, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Jacquemot E.32%
Samsonova L.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Samsonova L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Elsa Jacquemot comes in with 3 days of rest and 126 games in 14d, vs Liudmila Samsonova's 14 and 25.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 9 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Jacquemot E. 0–5 · Samsonova L. 3–1 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Hard × Grass)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1581
Surface ELO
6.8+142 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1611
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1775
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.84 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
36%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Return points won·Even
40%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
49%
54%
Aces / match·Even
2.9
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
6.2
4.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jacquemot E.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Samsonova L.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Jacquemot E.

Serve advantage — Samsonova L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
33
52
Break points saved·Even
75
73
Break points won·Even
93
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
17
32
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
19
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
64
98

Jacquemot E.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 110 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw