Andrea Guerrieri vs Francesco MaestrelliSt. Tropez Round of 32

St. Tropez · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#169ATP
1545ELO
1393Hard ELO
$105kYTD
$191kCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 21 September 2026 ·
hard
#171ATP
1538ELO
1551Hard ELO
$338kYTD
$921kCAREER
23 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLLL
Guerrieri A.
6-3 6-7 6-3
Maestrelli F.
Guerrieri A.
66462
Maestrelli F.
37731

Andrea Guerrieri defeated Francesco Maestrelli in the Round of 32 of the St. Tropez hard-court tournament. Guerrieri won the match 6-3, 6-7, 6-3. In the match, Guerrieri had zero aces and eight double faults, while Maestrelli had four aces and zero double faults; Guerrieri converted 67% of break points and Maestrelli converted 17%, with Guerrieri securing two service breaks to Maestrelli's one.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Guerrieri A.10/15
Maestrelli F.7/16

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
46%
Service points won·Even
59%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
5.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.5
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
62
56
Break points saved·Even
80
83
Break points won·Dominant
40
14
Deciding sets·Even
84
83
Tiebreaks·
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Guerrieri A.44%
Maestrelli F.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 1393
Surface ELO
7.0+157 Hard Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1545
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1538
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.54 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
54

Guerrieri A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d) · Maestrelli F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 101 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw