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Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina — WTA Finals Semi-final

WTA FinalsSemi-finalHardSat 14 Nov · ~13:30Indian Wells Tennis Garden · After 1 match
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Noskova L.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Svitolina E.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+85 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Svitolina E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2070Against the prediction · Svitolina E.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Svitolina E.
Head-to-headLeads 3–0 on hardSupports Noskova L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Noskova L.
ELO2 157
Hard ELO1 943
Last 107–3
Age21
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $12.2M2026 $7.6M
ELO2 141
Hard ELO1 996
Last 107–3
Age32
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $31.2M2026 $4.5M

Linda Noskova faces Elina Svitolina in the WTA Finals semi-final on hard. Elina Svitolina is the paper favourite — ranked #6, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage — but Linda Noskova has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

19 shared · last 12 months
All 19 opponents →

Noskova L. and Svitolina E. faced 19 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Noskova L. went 19–10 (66%) against them, Svitolina E. 19–7 (73%). Results against comparable opponents are close (4 : 7 better-results split).

19–1066%Noskova L. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents19–773%Svitolina E. · better vs 7
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
42–26Sets39–22
362–300Games315–248
4–5Tiebreaks2–3
7–4Deciding sets8–2
Show 16 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Noskova L. leads 3–1
Full H2H →
31

Hard: Noskova L. leads 3–0 · Clay: Svitolina E. leads 1–0

Evidence

Noskova L.Svitolina E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate73% (44–16) (ahead)73% (53–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2157 (ahead)2141
Hard-court ELO19431996 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 65 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)66%
Return points won42%47% (ahead)
Aces / match6.9 (ahead)3.4
ClutchLast 53 vs 65 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)62%

When it starts

Indian Wells Tennis Garden · After 1 match · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Indian Wells Tennis Garden · ~13:30 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast26°C · Clear
Wind9 km/h
Humidity34%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Noskova L.Svitolina E.
2 — fresherDays since last match1
3Matches · 7 days3
71Games · 7 days66 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days3
71Games · 14 days66 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina — WTA Finals Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-14/noskova-vs-svitolina-wta-finals-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 14 November 2026).