Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa — Berlin Quarter-final

Berlin · WTA · Quarter-final

CZE

Linda Noskova

#13WTA

1948ELO

1776Grass ELO

$1.1MYTD

$5.7MCAREER

21 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLWLWWWL

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Sets

Friday, 19 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

ESP

Paula Badosa

#142WTA

1770ELO

1635Grass ELO

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLLLWWL

Noskova L.

Badosa P.

Linda Noskova faces Paula Badosa in the Berlin quarter-final on grass. Linda Noskova holds the paper edge — ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 140-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:21 UTC

Noskova L.82%

Badosa P.18%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Noskova L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Linda Noskova 17 games in 14 days, Paula Badosa 61.
Serve & return: Linda Noskova brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 69), Paula Badosa the stronger return game (Return Rating 31).
Last match: Paula Badosa dropped the opening set before beating Coco Gauff 1–6 6–3 6–2.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Noskova L.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Badosa P.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.8+141 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.2Grass Elo 1635

6.0Overall Elo 1948

ELO gap

4.0Overall Elo 1770

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

8.48 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.16 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

7.0Reached the quarters here last year

8.5Excels in hot weather

Heat performance

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Noskova L.Stable

Badosa P.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Noskova L.Badosa P.

1st serve in·Even

58%

56%

1st serve points won·Even

73%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

49%

39%

Service points won·Slight edge

63%

56%

Return points won·Even

40%

43%

Break points saved·Clear edge

66%

53%

Aces / match·Clear edge

7.3

4.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

5.6

7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Noskova L.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Noskova L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Noskova L.Badosa P.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

Noskova L.Badosa P.

Serve

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Return

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Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Noskova L.Badosa P.

Freshness·Clear edge

Noskova L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

30°COvercast

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-02-03	Abu Dhabi	R16	hard	Linda Noskova	6-4 6-1