Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff — Berlin Round of 16

Berlin · WTA · Round of 16

ESPWC

Paula Badosa

#141WTA

1770ELO

1635Grass ELO

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLLLWWLW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · 15:30

grass

STEFFI GRAF STADION · 3rd on

USA

Coco Gauff

#7WTA

2091ELO

1851Grass ELO

$2.9MYTD

$33MCAREER

22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWLWWWWLW

Badosa P.

Gauff C.

Paula Badosa faces Coco Gauff in the Berlin round of 16 on grass. Coco Gauff is the paper favourite — ranked #7, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 220-point grass Elo advantage — but Paula Badosa has won 4 of their 7 previous meetings, though none on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Badosa P.15%

Gauff C.85%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Gauff C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Paula Badosa comes in with 8 days of rest and 20 games in 14d, vs Coco Gauff's 17 and 0.
Head-to-head: Paula Badosa leads the head-to-head 4–3; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Australian Open 2025.
Last match: Paula Badosa dropped just 5 games past Suzan Lamens.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Badosa P.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Gauff C.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

2.3Grass Elo 1635

Surface ELO

7.7+216 Grass Elo edge

2.0Overall Elo 1770

ELO gap

8.0Overall Elo 2091

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

5.76 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

4.85 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

7.0Reached the quarters here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Badosa P.Stable

Gauff C.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Badosa P.Gauff C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

56%

64%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

39%

38%

Service points won·Even

56%

57%

Return points won·Even

43%

47%

Break points saved·Even

53%

56%

Aces / match·Clear edge

4.8

3.2

Double faults / match·Slight edge

7.6

7.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Badosa P.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Serve advantage — Gauff C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Badosa P.Gauff C.

Clutch Rating·Slight edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Slight edge

100

Deciding sets·Slight edge

100

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Badosa P.Gauff C.

Freshness·Even

100

Badosa P.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Gauff C.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on STEFFI GRAF STADION · not before Not before 3:30 PM · 2 matches still to finish ahead

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

22°COvercast

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

4–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-01-13	Australian Open	QF	hard	Paula Badosa	7-5 6-4
2024-09-25	Beijing	SF	hard	Coco Gauff	4-6 6-4 6-2
2024-05-06	Rome	R16	clay	Coco Gauff	5-7 6-4 6-1
2023-04-24	Madrid	R32	clay	Paula Badosa	6-3 6-0
2022-08-01	San Jose	QF	hard	Paula Badosa	7-6(4) 6-2
2022-02-21	Doha	R16	hard	Coco Gauff	6-2 6-3
2021-10-06	Indian Wells	R32	hard	Paula Badosa	6-2 6-2