Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo | Stockholm Quarter-final

UMPIRY

StockholmQuarter-finalHardThu 12 Nov · 13:00CENTER COURT · Next on

Alex Michelsen(6)ATP #35 · USA75%

VSClear favourite · Michelsen A.

Alejandro Tabilo(4)ATP #31 · CHI25%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Michelsen A.

75%25%

Clear edge for Michelsen A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Michelsen A.6.9/10

Slight advantage

Tabilo A.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+60 Hard Elo edgeSupports Michelsen A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1825Supports Michelsen A.

Recent run2-match win streakSupports Michelsen A.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Michelsen A.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Tabilo A.

ELO2 050

Hard ELO1 920

Last 106–4

Age22

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $5.0M2026 $1.1M

ELO1 939

Hard ELO1 786

Last 103–7

Age29

Height188 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $6.2M2026 $1.5M

Alex Michelsen faces Alejandro Tabilo in the Stockholm quarter-final on hard. Alex Michelsen holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alex Michelsen 119 games in 14 days, Alejandro Tabilo 17.
Under pressure: Alex Michelsen has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 63 vs Alejandro Tabilo's 27).
Last match: Alex Michelsen dropped just 5 games past Juan Manuel Cerundolo.

Common opponents

9 shared · last 12 months

Michelsen A. and Tabilo A. faced 9 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Michelsen A. went 9–4 (69%) against them, Tabilo A. 3–11 (21%). Michelsen A. came out better against 4 of 8 comparable opponents, Tabilo A. against 1.

9–469%Michelsen A. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents3–1121%Tabilo A. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

22–10Sets12–23

168–138Games153–181

4–1Tiebreaks1–4

2–1Deciding sets0–5

vs Medvedev D.#5L2-6 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hardL4-6 2-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Jodar R.#11L6-4 3-6 3-6Roland Garros · clayL7-6(6) 4-6 4-6Washington · hard
vs Lehecka J.#15L4-6 2-6Madrid Masters · clayL6-3 6-7 4-6Madrid Masters · clay

Show 6 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Cerundolo F.#20W6-3 6-4Montreal · hardL0-6 2-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Struff J.#37W6-1 3-6 6-1Montreal · hardW6-3 6-4Cincinnati · hard
vs Merida Aguilar D.#42W7-6(5) 6-4 6-3US Open · hardL7-5 3-6 3-6Davis Cup · clay
vs Mannarino A.#61W6-4 7-6(3)Washington · hardL4-6 4-6Chengdu · hard
vs Hanfmann Y.#67W6-2 6-3Stockholm · hardW6-3 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3US Open · hard
vs Etcheverry T.#29Hard to compareW7-6(6) 6-4 6-4US Open · hardL6-3 6-7 4-6Rio de Janeiro · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Michelsen A. leads 1–0

Michelsen A.March 2026Miami MastersHard3-6 6-3 6-4

Evidence

Michelsen A.Tabilo A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–43–7

Season win rate63% (41–24)57% (39–30)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20501939

Hard-court ELO19201786

Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 61 matches

1st-serve points won72%74%

Return points won38%37%

Aces / match6.06.0

ClutchLast 65 vs 61 matches

Break points saved64%62%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Starts at 13:00

1This match: Michelsen A. v Tabilo A.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 13:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast6°C · Drizzle

Wind20 km/h

Humidity87%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Michelsen A.Tabilo A.

1Days since last match9

3Matches · 7 days0

56Games · 7 days0

5Matches · 14 days1

119Games · 14 days17

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo — Stockholm Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-12/michelsen-vs-tabilo-stockholm-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 12 November 2026).