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Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 32

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR32HardWed 4 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Tiafoe F.
31%69%

Clear edge for Tiafoe F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Halys Q.4.2/10
Heavy underdog
Tiafoe F.6.7/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+185 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tiafoe F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1918Supports Tiafoe F.
Recent runLost last 2Against the prediction · Halys Q.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Tiafoe F.
ELO1 968
Hard ELO1 803
Last 104–6
Age30
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.8M2026 $1.1M
ELO2 123
Hard ELO1 970
Last 106–4
Age28
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20.2M2026 $4.4M

Quentin Halys faces Frances Tiafoe in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 32 on hard. Frances Tiafoe is the paper favourite — ranked #8, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage — but Quentin Halys has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings.

Key context

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months
All 12 opponents →

Halys Q. and Tiafoe F. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Halys Q. went 7–10 (41%) against them, Tiafoe F. 8–5 (62%). Results against comparable opponents are close (3 : 4 better-results split).

7–1041%Halys Q. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents8–562%Tiafoe F. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
24–25Sets21–14
256–263Games192–166
10–7Tiebreaks2–5
1–6Deciding sets1–2
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Halys Q. leads 3–1
Full H2H →
31

Clay: Halys Q. leads 2–1 · Hard: Halys Q. leads 1–0

Evidence

Halys Q.Tiafoe F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–66–4 (ahead)
Season win rate57% (40–30)69% (44–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19682123 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18031970 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 63 vs 64 matches
1st-serve points won79% (ahead)75%
Return points won34%36% (ahead)
Aces / match11.2 (ahead)6.5
ClutchLast 63 vs 64 matches
Break points saved68% (ahead)66%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast5°C · Overcast
Wind13 km/h
Humidity74%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Halys Q.Tiafoe F.
8 — fresherDays since last match6
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days25
1Matches · 14 days1
36Games · 14 days25 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-04/halys-vs-tiafoe-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 4 November 2026).