UMPIRY
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Nuno Borges vs Casper Ruud — Basel Round of 16

BaselR16HardWed 28 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Ruud C.
39%61%

Ruud C. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Borges N.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Ruud C.7.5/10
Dominant favourite
Why
Surface+175 Hard Elo edgeSupports Ruud C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1983Supports Ruud C.
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Ruud C.
This eventReached the quarters here last yearSupports Ruud C.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Borges N.
ELO1 981
Hard ELO1 827
Last 105–5
Age29
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.9M2026 $1.5M
ELO2 092
Hard ELO1 861
Last 106–4
Age27
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $29.4M2026 $2.2M

Nuno Borges faces Casper Ruud in the Basel round of 16 on hard. Casper Ruud holds the paper edge — ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's quarter-final. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months
All 10 opponents →

Borges N. and Ruud C. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Borges N. went 3–11 (21%) against them, Ruud C. 7–5 (58%). Ruud C. came out better against 5 of 10 comparable opponents, Borges N. against 0.

3–1121%Borges N. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents7–558%Ruud C. · better vs 5
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
10–25Sets15–12
155–197Games148–135
1–5Tiebreaks1–3
0–3Deciding sets2–1
Show 7 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Ruud C. leads 2–1
Full H2H →
12

Hard: Ruud C. leads 2–0 · Clay: Borges N. leads 1–0

Evidence

Borges N.Ruud C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–56–4 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (28–28)61% (30–19) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19812092 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18271861 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)71%
Return points won35%37% (ahead)
Aces / match6.7 (ahead)6.1
ClutchLast 54 vs 47 matches
Break points saved66%68% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast12°C · Overcast
Wind11 km/h
Humidity85%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Borges N.Ruud C.
16 — fresherDays since last match10
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
0 — fresherGames · 14 days59
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nuno Borges vs Casper Ruud — Basel Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/borges-vs-ruud-basel-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).