Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn — Mallorca Semi-final

Mallorca · ATP · Semi-final

POR

Nuno Borges

#53ATP

1751ELO

1616Grass ELO

$787kYTD

$5.2MCAREER

29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLLWLWWL

—

Sets

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 15:00

grass

USA

Ethan Quinn

#63ATP

1765ELO

1631Grass ELO

$680kYTD

$2.0MCAREER

22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLWLLLWW

Borges N.

Quinn E.

Nuno Borges faces Ethan Quinn in the Mallorca semi-final on grass. Nuno Borges is the paper favourite — ranked #53 — but Ethan Quinn arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on grass to Nuno Borges's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Borges N.45%

Quinn E.55%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Ethan Quinn dropped the opening set before beating Vit Kopriva 5–7 7–5 6–3.
Last match: Nuno Borges edged Luciano Darderi in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
Fatigue load: Ethan Quinn carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Borges N.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Quinn E.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.8Grass Elo 1616

Surface ELO

5.2+14 Grass Elo edge

4.8Overall Elo 1751

ELO gap

5.2Overall Elo 1765

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.56 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

8.18 of last 10 on grass

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

8.5Excels in hot weather

Heat performance

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Borges N.Rising

Quinn E.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season

Borges N.Quinn E.

1st serve in·Even

65%

63%

1st serve points won·Even

73%

75%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

51%

Service points won·Even

65%

66%

Return points won·Even

34%

Break points saved·Even

62%

65%

Aces / match·Clear edge

6.3

7.9

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.2

2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Borges N.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Quinn E.

Quinn E.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Borges N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Borges N.Quinn E.

Clutch Rating·Slight edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Borges N.Quinn E.

Freshness·Clear edge

Borges N.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Quinn E.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

34°CMainly clear

Wind 13 km/hHumidity 38%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.