Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud — Gstaad Quarter-final
NOR
Cerundolo J.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo faces Casper Ruud in the Gstaad quarter-final on clay. Casper Ruud is the paper favourite — ranked #13, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 210-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won their only previous meeting. Juan Manuel Cerundolo brings the better recent clay form (5 of 6).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Ruud C. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Juan Manuel Cerundolo 29 games in 14 days, Casper Ruud 0.
- Serve & return: Casper Ruud leads on Serve Rating (58), Juan Manuel Cerundolo on Return Rating (38).
- Last match: Juan Manuel Cerundolo dropped the opening set before beating Miomir Kecmanovic 3–6 6–3 7–5.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadCerundolo J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Ruud C.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on Court 1 · not before Not Before 12:00 · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Collignon R. v Vacherot V.
- 2Cerundolo J. v Ruud C.This match
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-14 | Gstaad | QF | clay | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 6-2 1-6 6-3 |