Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego — Gstaad Round of 16
Collignon R.
Raphael Collignon faces Lorenzo Sonego in the Gstaad round of 16 on clay. Raphael Collignon holds the paper edge — ranked #42, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Collignon R. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Raphael Collignon 28 games in 14 days, Lorenzo Sonego 145.
- Last match: Raphael Collignon dropped the opening set before beating Timofey Skatov 3–6 7–6 6–4.
- Last match: Lorenzo Sonego edged Joel Schwaerzler in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCollignon R.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Sonego L.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.