Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys — Gstaad Round of 16

Gstaad · ATP · Round of 16
Alexander Bublik
KAZ
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1822Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWWLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
Quentin Halys
FRA
Quentin Halys
#90ATP
1707ELO
1664Clay ELO
$694kYTD
$5.4MCAREER
29 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLLWW
Bublik A.
vs
Halys Q.

Alexander Bublik faces Quentin Halys in the Gstaad round of 16 on clay. Alexander Bublik holds the paper edge — ranked #11, defending the title, a roughly 160-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC
Bublik A.76%
Halys Q.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bublik A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bublik A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Halys Q.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+158 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1664
7.3Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1707
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.68 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Bublik A.Stable
Halys Q.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Bublik A.Halys Q.
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
67%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Even
66%
67%
Aces / match·Even
9.8
9.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Halys Q.

Halys Q.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Bublik A.Halys Q.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
88
57
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
67
4
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
75
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on clay

Bublik A.Halys Q.
43
Serve
—
38
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
Bublik A.Halys Q.
Freshness·Clear edge
78
93

Bublik A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Halys Q.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.