Julia Riera vs Darja Semenistaja — Rome Round of 32
Riera J.
Julia Riera faces Darja Semenistaja in the Rome round of 32 on clay. Darja Semenistaja is the paper favourite — ranked #104, a roughly 100-point clay Elo advantage — but Julia Riera arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on clay to Darja Semenistaja's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Semenistaja D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Julia Riera 0 games in 14 days, Darja Semenistaja 51.
- Under pressure: Darja Semenistaja has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 76 vs Julia Riera's 26).
- Surface form: Julia Riera 4 of 6, Darja Semenistaja 3 of 6 on clay recently — Julia Riera the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRiera J.: 18 days rest · Semenistaja D.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.