Francesca Jones vs Dalila Spiteri — Rome Round of 32
Jones F.
Francesca Jones faces Dalila Spiteri in the Rome round of 32 on clay. Francesca Jones is the paper favourite — ranked #106, a roughly 250-point clay Elo advantage — but Dalila Spiteri arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 6 on clay to Francesca Jones's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Jones F. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Francesca Jones 2 of 6, Dalila Spiteri 3 of 6 on clay recently — Dalila Spiteri the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Francesca Jones carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadJones F.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.