Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah ChiesaRome Round of 32

Rome · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#222WTA
1471ELO
1437Clay ELO
31 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLLWLW
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
clay
#374WTA
1449ELO
1460Clay ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLWL
Gjorcheska L.
vs
Chiesa D.

Lina Gjorcheska faces Deborah Chiesa in the Rome round of 32 on clay. Lina Gjorcheska is the paper favourite — ranked #222 — but Deborah Chiesa arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on clay to Lina Gjorcheska's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC
Gjorcheska L.56%
Chiesa D.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1437
Surface ELO
5.3+22 Clay Elo edge
5.9Overall Elo 1471
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1449
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
59%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
37%
47%
Service points won·Even
53%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.1
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.8
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gjorcheska L.serving37% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Chiesa D.

Chiesa D.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Gjorcheska L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
98

Gjorcheska L.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
31°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 40%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.