Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov — Newport Round of 16
Fearnley J.
Jacob Fearnley faces Stefan Kozlov in the Newport round of 16 on grass. Jacob Fearnley holds the paper edge — ranked #159, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jacob Fearnley 77 games in 14 days, Stefan Kozlov 52.
- Under pressure: Jacob Fearnley has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 86 vs Stefan Kozlov's 36).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFearnley J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Kozlov S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
4th on COURT 1 · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Kozlov S. v Wu Y.6-42-66-4
- 2Broady L. v Ilagan A.6-37-62
- 3Tomic B. v Walton A.Live4-5
- 4Fearnley J. v Kozlov S.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.