Katherine Sebov vs Tatjana Maria — Newport Round of 16

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

CAN

Katherine Sebov

#244WTA

1407ELO

1364Grass ELO

27 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWWLLLLWL

0 — 2

Sets

Thursday, 9 July 2026 · 11:10

grass

CENTER COURT 1 · 1st on

GER2

Tatjana Maria

#96WTA

1703ELO

1688Grass ELO

38 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WWWLWLWWWW

Sebov K.

3-6 3-6

Maria T.

Sebov K.

330

Maria T.

662

Tatjana Maria dropped just six games in a straight-sets win over Katherine Sebov in the Newport round of 16.

Key context

Set 2, game 6: A 15-point game with five deuces went Katherine Sebov's way.
Pressure points: Katherine Sebov converted 3 of 9 break points; Tatjana Maria converted 6 of 6 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Sebov K.

Maria T.

Break points won

3/9

6/6

Break points saved

0/6

6/9

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Sebov K.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Maria T.

Maria T.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Sebov K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Sebov K.Maria T.

1st serve in·Clear edge

79%

58%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

57%

65%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

51%

45%

Service points won·Even

56%

57%

Return points won·Even

44%

40%

Break points saved·Even

57%

55%

Aces / match·Dominant

0.7

3.8

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.5

2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Sebov K.Maria T.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Clear edge

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·

—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC

Sebov K.13%

Maria T.87%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Maria T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sebov K.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Maria T.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

0.9Grass Elo 1364

Surface ELO

9.1+324 Grass Elo edge

3.6Overall Elo 1407

ELO gap

6.4Overall Elo 1702

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.04 of last 7 on grass

Surface form

6.87 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.