Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Lea Ma — Newport Round of 16

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

THA

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

#164WTA

1696ELO

1592Grass ELO

23 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Thursday, 9 July 2026 · 14:00

grass

USA

Lea Ma

#299WTA

1383ELO

1344Grass ELO

25 yrs

Last 10

WLWLWWLLLW

Sawangkaew M.

Ma L.

Mananchaya Sawangkaew faces Lea Ma in the Newport round of 16 on grass. Mananchaya Sawangkaew holds the paper edge — ranked #164, a roughly 250-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:21 UTC

Sawangkaew M.85%

Ma L.15%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sawangkaew M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Lea Ma advanced when Clervie Ngounoue retired.
Fatigue load: Mananchaya Sawangkaew carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sawangkaew M.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Ma L.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

8.1+248 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

1.9Grass Elo 1344

8.1Overall Elo 1696

ELO gap

1.9Overall Elo 1383

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.27 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sawangkaew M.Stable

Ma L.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

36 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season

Sawangkaew M.Ma L.

1st serve in·Slight edge

67%

57%

1st serve points won·Even

66%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

45%

48%

Service points won·Even

59%

Return points won·Even

47%

43%

Break points saved·Even

58%

61%

Aces / match·Slight edge

2.1

2.9

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.4

2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Sawangkaew M.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ma L.

Ma L.serving61% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Sawangkaew M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Sawangkaew M.Ma L.

Freshness·

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Sawangkaew M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

26°CMainly clear

Wind 22 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.