Katherine Sebov vs Tatjana Maria — Newport Round of 16
Sebov K.
Katherine Sebov faces Tatjana Maria in the Newport round of 16 on grass. Tatjana Maria is the paper favourite — ranked #96, a roughly 320-point grass Elo advantage — but Katherine Sebov arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass to Tatjana Maria's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Maria T. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Katherine Sebov 66 games in 14 days, Tatjana Maria 103.
- Under pressure: Katherine Sebov has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 51 vs Tatjana Maria's 13).
- Last match: Katherine Sebov dropped just 4 games past Cadence Brace.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.