Lucrezia Stefanini vs Carol Zhao — Newport Round of 32
Stefanini L.
Lucrezia Stefanini faces Carol Zhao in the Newport round of 32 on grass. Lucrezia Stefanini holds the paper edge — ranked #163, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Stefanini L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Lucrezia Stefanini comes in with 12 days of rest and 52 games in 14d, vs Carol Zhao's 13 and 22.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Carol Zhao rising, Lucrezia Stefanini cooling.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadStefanini L.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Zhao C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.