Iryna Shymanovich vs Mary Stoiana — Newport Round of 16
Shymanovich I.
Iryna Shymanovich faces Mary Stoiana in the Newport round of 16 on grass. Mary Stoiana is the paper favourite — ranked #130, a roughly 120-point grass Elo advantage — but Iryna Shymanovich arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on grass to Mary Stoiana's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Stoiana M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Iryna Shymanovich comes in with 8 days of rest and 73 games in 14d, vs Mary Stoiana's 14 and 30.
- Last match: Iryna Shymanovich dropped just 5 games past Hayu Kinoshita.
- Last match: Mary Stoiana dropped just 4 games past Katrina Scott.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadShymanovich I.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Stoiana M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.