Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Tatjana Maria — Newport Semi-final
Sawangkaew M.
Mananchaya Sawangkaew faces Tatjana Maria in the Newport semi-final on grass. Tatjana Maria holds the paper edge — ranked #96, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Mananchaya Sawangkaew has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 83 vs Tatjana Maria's 13).
- Last match: Mananchaya Sawangkaew dropped the opening set before beating Mary Stoiana 3–6 6–2 7–5.
- Last match: Tatjana Maria handed Lucrezia Stefanini a second-set bagel in a 6–1 6–0 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSawangkaew M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d) · Maria T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.