Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana — Newport Quarter-final
Sawangkaew M.
Mananchaya Sawangkaew faces Mary Stoiana in the Newport quarter-final on grass. Mary Stoiana is the paper favourite — ranked #130 — but Mananchaya Sawangkaew has won their only previous meeting. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Sawangkaew M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mananchaya Sawangkaew comes in with 1 days of rest and 117 games in 14d, vs Mary Stoiana's 1 and 16.
- Last match: Mary Stoiana dropped the opening set before beating Iryna Shymanovich 3–6 6–2 6–3.
- Last match: Mananchaya Sawangkaew dropped just 5 games past Lea Ma.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadSawangkaew M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d) · Stoiana M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Wimbledon | SF | grass | Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 2-6 6-4 7-5 |