Yosuke Watanuki vs Braden Shick — Cary Semi-final
Watanuki Y.
Yosuke Watanuki faces Braden Shick in the Cary semi-final on hard. Yosuke Watanuki holds the paper edge — ranked #294, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Watanuki Y. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Yosuke Watanuki comes in with 1 days of rest and 53 games in 14d, vs Braden Shick's 1 and 30.
- Last match: Yosuke Watanuki dropped just 5 games past Jack Kennedy.
- Last match: Braden Shick edged Jay Dylan Hara Friend in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadWatanuki Y.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Shick B.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.