Yuta Shimizu vs Michael Mmoh — Cary Round of 32
USA5
Shimizu Y.
Yuta Shimizu faces Michael Mmoh in the Cary round of 32 on hard. Michael Mmoh holds the paper edge — ranked #192, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Mmoh M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Michael Mmoh has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 66 vs 23).
- Freshness: Yuta Shimizu comes in with 1 days of rest and 26 games in 14d, vs Michael Mmoh's 7 and 27.
- Last match: Yuta Shimizu edged Trevor Svajda in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadShimizu Y.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Mmoh M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.