Liam Broady vs Hayato MatsuokaCary Round of 32

Cary · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#210ATP
1608ELO
1586Hard ELO
32 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWLWLW
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
hard
#347ATP
1361ELO
1332Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLWWLL
Broady L.
vs
Matsuoka H.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Broady L.88%
Matsuoka H.12%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Broady L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.2+254 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.8Hard Elo 1332
8.1Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1361
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.3
3.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Broady L.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Matsuoka H.

Matsuoka H.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Broady L.

Serve advantage — Broady L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
85

Broady L.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.