Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre IlaganCary Round of 32

Cary · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#288ATP
1552ELO
1536Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLWWLW
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
hard
#258ATP
1544ELO
1519Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWWW
Watanuki Y.
vs
Ilagan A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Watanuki Y.46%
Ilagan A.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+18 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1519
5.1Overall Elo 1552
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1544
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.14 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.68 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

8 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
49%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
4.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Watanuki Y.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Ilagan A.

Ilagan A.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Watanuki Y.

Serve advantage — Ilagan A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
49
36
Break points saved·Clear edge
89
76
Break points won·Even
20
17
Deciding sets·Clear edge
52
67
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Watanuki Y.: 19 days rest · Ilagan A.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.