Daniil Glinka vs Aidan MayoCary Round of 32

Cary · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#171ATP
1510ELO
1508Hard ELO
$126kYTD
$263kCAREER
26 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLWLWL
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
hard
#547ATP
1380ELO
1359Hard ELO
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWLWWWW
Glinka D.
vs
Mayo A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Glinka D.72%
Mayo A.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Glinka D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+149 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1359
6.6Overall Elo 1510
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1380
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.74 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Glinka D.Stable
Mayo A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 14 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.9
6.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.7
4.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Glinka D.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Mayo A.

Mayo A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Glinka D.

Serve advantage — Mayo A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
19
18
Break points saved·Clear edge
82
68
Break points won·Slight edge
9
1
Deciding sets·Slight edge
6
12
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
52
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Glinka D.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.