Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Braden ShickCary Quarter-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#315ATP
1503ELO
1480Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 1st on
#219ATP
1385ELO
1358Hard ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWLW
Dylan Hara Friend J.
6-7 4-6
Shick B.
Dylan Hara Friend J.
640
Shick B.
762

Braden Shick defeated Jay Dylan Hara Friend in the quarterfinals of the Cary tournament, winning 7-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Shick served eight aces to Friend's six and committed two double faults to Friend's five. Shick converted 20% of break points and won one service break to Friend's zero.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
66%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.6
3.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.5
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Dylan Hara Friend J.77%
Shick B.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Dylan Hara Friend J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.5+122 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1358
6.5Overall Elo 1503
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1384
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.89 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
99
100

Dylan Hara Friend J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Shick B.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw