Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Braden Shick

Cary · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

JPN

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1503ELO

1480Hard ELO

22 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLLWWLL

—

Sets

Friday, 3 July 2026 · 11:00

hard

USA

Braden Shick

#325ATP

1384ELO

1358Hard ELO

22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWWWWL

Friend J.

Shick B.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend faces Braden Shick in the Cary quarter-final on hard. Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the paper favourite — a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Braden Shick arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Jay Dylan Hara Friend's 6.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC

Friend J.77%

Shick B.23%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Friend J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Jay Dylan Hara Friend comes in with 2 days of rest and 84 games in 14d, vs Braden Shick's 1 and 15.
Last match: Jay Dylan Hara Friend dropped just 3 games past A. Martinez.
Last match: Braden Shick advanced when Dhakshineswar Suresh retired.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Friend J.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Shick B.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.5+122 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.5Hard Elo 1358

6.5Overall Elo 1503

ELO gap

3.5Overall Elo 1384

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.47 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

8.28 of last 10 on hard

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Friend J.Stable

Shick B.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

11 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season

Friend J.Shick B.

1st serve in·Slight edge

64%

53%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

69%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

Service points won·Even

63%

59%

Return points won·Even

38%

41%

Break points saved·Even

58%

55%

Aces / match·Clear edge

5.6

3.6

Double faults / match·Even

3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Friend J.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Shick B.

Shick B.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Friend J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Friend J.Shick B.

Freshness·Dominant

Friend J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d) · Shick B.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

36°CClear

Wind 3 km/hHumidity 40%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Braden Shick — Cary Quarter-final