Mark Lajal vs Bu Yunchaokete — Ilkley Quarter-final

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

EST

Mark Lajal

#154ATP

1598ELO

1587Grass ELO

$55kYTD

$612kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLWWLLW

—

Sets

Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

CHN

Bu Yunchaokete

#131ATP

1653ELO

1469Grass ELO

24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWLLWW

Mark Lajal faces Bu Yunchaokete in the Ilkley quarter-final on grass. Bu Yunchaokete holds the paper edge — ranked #131.

Key context

Last match: Bu Yunchaokete edged Chris Rodesch in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Fatigue load: Mark Lajal carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 3 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Bu Yunchaokete arrives on a 6-match winning run.
Surface form: Mark Lajal 4 of 6, Bu Yunchaokete 6 of 6 on grass recently — Bu Yunchaokete the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC

Lajal M.57%

Yunchaokete B.43%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Lajal M.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Yunchaokete B.

7.0

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.5+118 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.5Grass Elo 1469

4.3Overall Elo 1598

ELO gap

5.7Overall Elo 1653

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

6.56 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.26 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

9.06-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

13°COvercast

Wind 27 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Lajal M.Yunchaokete B.

61%1st serve in+1%60%

74%1st serve points won+1%73%

48%2nd serve points won+12%60%

64%Service points won+4%68%

37%Return points won+2%35%

69%Break points saved+3%66%

7.4Aces / match+1.36.1

3.2Double faults / match+21.2

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.