Tomas Machac vs Brandon NakashimaAcapulco Semi-final

Acapulco · ATP · Semi-final
#49ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 24 February 2025
hard
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Machac T.
6-4 1-6 6-4
Nakashima B.
Machac T.
6162
Nakashima B.
4641

Tomas Machac defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-4 1-6 6-4 in the Acapulco semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #31.

Key context

  • Match story: Tomas Machac closed it out in three sets, 6–4 1–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Machac T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Machac T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Machac T.Nakashima B.
30
Serve
61
25
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
9.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (56 vs 82). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
90
56
Break points saved·Even
98
99
Break points won·Dominant
80
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
97
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+42 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1788
5.5Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1839
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
3.4
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.9
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
84

Nakashima B.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 67%