Brandon Nakashima vs Tommy Paul — Canada Masters Round of 32

Canada Masters · ATP · Round of 32
Brandon Nakashima
USA
Brandon Nakashima
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 5 August 2024
hard
Tommy Paul
USA10
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Nakashima B.
6-2 6-7 6-1
Paul T.
Nakashima B.
66562
Paul T.
27711

Brandon Nakashima defeated Tommy Paul 6-2 6-7 6-1 in the Canada Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24, defending last year's semi-final. Brandon Nakashima extended the head-to-head to 4–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Brandon Nakashima came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–2 6–7 6–1.

Head to head

3–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-21ViennaR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-4 6-4
2023-05-22LyonQFclayBrandon Nakashima6-3 7-6(4)
2022-06-06s HertogenboschR32grassBrandon Nakashima6-7(4) 7-6(5) 7-6(2)
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Paul T.
61
Serve
71
23
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Nakashima B.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
68%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Even
66%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.6
6.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.2
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (176 vs 130). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Nakashima B.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
13
87
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
89
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nakashima B.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Paul T.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
6.2+94 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1949
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.9
Surface form
6.6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.6
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nakashima B.Paul T.
Freshness·Even
88
88

Nakashima B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 72%
Final
Popyrin A.
Rublev A.[5]
6-26-4
Semi-finals
Rublev A.[5]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-2
Popyrin A.
Korda S.
7-606-3
Quarter-finals
Arnaldi M.
Nishikori K.
6-47-5
Korda S.
Zverev A.[2]
7-651-66-4
Rublev A.[5]
Sinner J.[1]
6-31-66-2
Popyrin A.
Hurkacz H.[4]
3-67-657-5
R16
Korda S.
Ruud C.[6]
W/O
Arnaldi M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
4-67-653-0
Popyrin A.
Dimitrov G.[7]
4-67-656-3
Sinner J.[1]
Tabilo A.[15]
6-46-3
Rublev A.[5]
Nakashima B.
6-26-2
Hurkacz H.[4]
Rinderknech A.
4-66-36-4
Zverev A.[2]
Rune H.[13]
6-37-65
Nishikori K.
Borges N.
6-36-4
R32
Davidovich Fokina A.
Medvedev D.[3]
6-41-66-2
Tabilo A.[15]
Sonego L.
6-46-2
Nakashima B.
Paul T.[10]
6-26-756-1
Rublev A.[5]
Etcheverry T.
7-636-2
Arnaldi M.
Khachanov K.[16]
7-57-5
Borges N.
Humbert U.[12]
3-67-627-64
Nishikori K.
Tsitsipas S.[8]
6-46-4
Popyrin A.
Shelton B.[11]
6-47-64
Rinderknech A.
Cobolli F.
6-36-2
Hurkacz H.[4]
Kokkinakis T.
4-66-37-66
Ruud C.[6]
Duckworth J.
6-26-756-3
Korda S.
Fritz T.[9]
6-47-64
Rune H.[13]
Carreno Busta P.
6-16-3
Dimitrov G.[7]
Hijikata R.
6-16-0
Zverev A.[2]
Thompson J.
6-16-1
Sinner J.[1]
Coric B.
6-26-4
R64
Korda S.
Pospisil V.
2-1
Rune H.[13]
Bautista Agut R.
6-23-66-2
Fritz T.[9]
Navone M.
6-46-1
Davidovich Fokina A.
Safiullin R.
6-27-5
Sonego L.
Griekspoor T.
7-675-76-4
Paul T.[10]
Darderi L.
6-47-62
Nakashima B.
Shapovalov D.
6-47-5
Etcheverry T.
Jarry N.
7-656-756-2
Arnaldi M.
Mcdonald M.
4-66-46-4
Humbert U.[12]
Fils A.
6-26-2
Borges N.
Kecmanovic M.
5-76-46-4
Hijikata R.
Daniel T.
6-17-5
Popyrin A.
Machac T.
6-36-4
Shelton B.[11]
Bublik A.
7-646-2
Cobolli F.
Auger Aliassime F.[14]
6-36-2
Kokkinakis T.
Monfils G.
6-36-3
Duckworth J.
Giron M.
6-46-1
Thompson J.
Draper J.
7-56-2
Khachanov K.[16]
Diallo G.
6-46-4
Carreno Busta P.
Marozsan F.
6-787-666-3
Nishikori K.
Michelsen A.
3-67-56-4
Tabilo A.[15]
Tiafoe F.
6-46-2
Rinderknech A.
Mannarino A.
6-42-66-4
Coric B.
Martinez P.
6-46-4