Brandon Nakashima vs Tommy PaulVienna Round of 32

Vienna · ATP · Round of 32
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 21 October 2024
hard
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Nakashima B.
6-4 6-4
Paul T.
Nakashima B.
662
Paul T.
440

Brandon Nakashima defeated Tommy Paul 6-4 6-4 in the Vienna round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, defending last year's round of 16. Brandon Nakashima extended the head-to-head to 4–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Brandon Nakashima edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-05Canada MastersR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-2 6-7(5) 6-1
2023-05-22LyonQFclayBrandon Nakashima6-3 7-6(4)
2022-06-06s HertogenboschR32grassBrandon Nakashima6-7(4) 7-6(5) 7-6(2)

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Paul T.
61
Serve
71
23
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
55%
Service points won·Even
68%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Even
66%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.6
6.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.2
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (176 vs 130). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
13
87
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
89
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
6.2+94 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1949
10.0
H2H
0.0
4.8
Surface form
7.7
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
6.3
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
84
84

Nakashima B.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
13°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 80%