Tomas Machac vs Tommy PaulTokyo Round of 16

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 16
#49ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
hard
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Machac T.
2-6 6-3 7-6
Paul T.
Machac T.
26772
Paul T.
63641

Tomas Machac defeated Tommy Paul 2-6 6-3 7-6 in the Tokyo round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, defending last year's quarter-final. Tomas Machac extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-12AdelaideSFhardTomas Machac2-6 6-3 6-3
2025-05-07Rome MastersR32clayTommy Paul6-3 6-7(5) 6-4
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersR16hardTomas Machac3-6 6-4 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Machac T.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Machac T.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Machac T.Paul T.
30
Serve
71
25
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Even
5.6
6.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (121 vs 130). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
90
93
Break points saved·Even
98
99
Break points won·Slight edge
80
87
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
97
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1829
Surface ELO
5.6+52 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1949
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.5
Surface form
4.5
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
84

Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 31 km/hHumidity 64%