Tomas Machac vs Tommy PaulAdelaide Semi-final

Adelaide · ATP · Semi-final
#49ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Machac T.
2-6 6-3 6-3
Paul T.
Machac T.
2662
Paul T.
6331

Tomas Machac defeated Tommy Paul 2-6 6-3 6-3 in the Adelaide semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, defending last year's semi-final. Tomas Machac extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-07Rome MastersR32clayTommy Paul6-3 6-7(5) 6-4
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersR16hardTomas Machac3-6 6-4 6-3
2024-09-25TokyoR16hardTomas Machac2-6 6-3 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Machac T.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Machac T.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Machac T.Paul T.
30
Serve
71
25
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.1
7.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
90
93
Break points saved·Even
98
99
Break points won·Slight edge
80
87
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
97
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1829
Surface ELO
5.6+52 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1949
10.0
H2H
0.0
1.7
Surface form
4.7
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
8.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
5.4
Country comfort
6.1
Context
5.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
86

Paul T.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 32%