Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliRio de Janeiro Semi-final

Rio de Janeiro · ATP · Semi-final
#57ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 February 2025
clay
#59ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Baez S.
3-6 6-1 6-1
Ugo Carabelli C.
Baez S.
3662
Ugo Carabelli C.
6111

Sebastian Baez defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 3-6 6-1 6-1 in the Rio de Janeiro semi-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #57, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending the title. Sebastian Baez extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-09Buenos AiresQFclaySebastian Baez7-6(5) 6-2
2025-05-18HamburgR32clayCamilo Ugo Carabelli6-3 2-6 6-4
2025-02-24SantiagoSFclaySebastian Baez6-1 3-6 6-2
2025-02-10Buenos AiresR32claySebastian Baez6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Ugo Carabelli C.
1
Serve
24
44
Return
36

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.7
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (79 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
90
Break points won·Clear edge
86
62
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
5.5+23 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1759
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.9
Surface form
7.7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.7
Minutes 14d
1.1
7.0
3-set count
0.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
95
97

Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
39°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 22%