Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliBuenos Aires Quarter-final

Buenos Aires · ATP · Quarter-final
#57ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 February 2026
clay
#59ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Baez S.
7-6 6-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
Baez S.
7762
Ugo Carabelli C.
6520

Sebastian Baez defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 7-6 6-2 in the Buenos Aires quarter-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #57, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 16. Sebastian Baez extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18HamburgR32clayCamilo Ugo Carabelli6-3 2-6 6-4
2025-02-24SantiagoSFclaySebastian Baez6-1 3-6 6-2
2025-02-17Rio de JaneiroSFclaySebastian Baez3-6 6-1 6-1
2025-02-10Buenos AiresR32claySebastian Baez6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Serve advantage — Baez S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Ugo Carabelli C.
1
Serve
24
44
Return
36

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
72%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
90
Break points won·Clear edge
86
62
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
5.5+23 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1759
6.9
H2H
3.1
1.8
Surface form
10.0
0.0
Win streak
10.010-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
4.5
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
7.0
Country comfort
7.6
6.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
95
97

Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 39%