Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian BaezHamburg Round of 32

Hamburg · ATP · Round of 32
#59ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 18 May 2025
clay
#57ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-3 2-6 6-4
Baez S.
Ugo Carabelli C.
6262
Baez S.
3641

Camilo Ugo Carabelli defeated Sebastian Baez 6-3 2-6 6-4 in the Hamburg round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #57, leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's semi-final. Camilo Ugo Carabelli claimed a first win over Sebastian Baez in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-09Buenos AiresQFclaySebastian Baez7-6(5) 6-2
2025-02-24SantiagoSFclaySebastian Baez6-1 3-6 6-2
2025-02-17Rio de JaneiroSFclaySebastian Baez3-6 6-1 6-1
2025-02-10Buenos AiresR32claySebastian Baez6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Ugo Carabelli C.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Ugo Carabelli C.Baez S.
24
Serve
1
36
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (87 vs 79). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
87
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
96
Break points won·Clear edge
62
86
Deciding sets·Slight edge
96
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
72
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+23 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Clay Elo 1718
5.1Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1759
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.2
Surface form
3.1
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
3.7
Minutes 14d
7.1
4.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
95

Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
16°CDrizzle
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 48%