Sebastian Baez vs Mariano NavoneRio de Janeiro Round of 16

Rio de Janeiro · ATP · Round of 16
#56ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 February 2025
clay
#48ATP
1822ELO
1800Clay ELO
$722kYTD
$3.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWWL
Baez S.
6-4 1-6 6-3
Navone M.
Baez S.
6162
Navone M.
4631

Sebastian Baez defeated Mariano Navone 6-4 1-6 6-3 in the Rio de Janeiro round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Mariano Navone came in ranked #48, defending last year's final, but Sebastian Baez had been the form player, winning 8 of their last 8 on clay. Sebastian Baez extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Sebastian Baez closed it out in three sets, 6–4 1–6 6–3.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-19Rio de JaneiroFclaySebastian Baez6-2 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving61% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Navone M.

Navone M.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Navone M.
1
Serve
0
44
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Even
59%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (79 vs 89). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
87
75
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
86
Break points won·Even
86
90
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
77
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
83
60

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
5.7+83 Clay Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1822
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.9
Surface form
5.3
Fatigue & Travel
3.7
Minutes 14d
6.2
7.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
96
95

Baez S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Navone M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
39°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 22%