Win Probability

Wednesday, 23 September 2026
12 rated matches · 7 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchTrevor Svajda vs Federico Agustin Gomez50% · 50%Toss-up · San Diego 2 · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteMirra Andreeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich89% · 11%Strong favourite · Singapore · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day12 matches127 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalSan Diego 2 · R16 · HardFederico Agustin Gomez won 7-5 6-4Trevor Svajda50%Federico Agustin Gomez50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalKorea Open - Seoul · R16 · HardMaya Joint won 6-2 6-1Dayeon Back51%Maya Joint49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalAnkara Open - Ankara · R16 · HardPolina Iatcenko won 6-3 6-4Weronika Falkowska53%Polina Iatcenko47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalSt. Tropez · R16 · HardDaniil Glinka won 6-4 3-6 6-4Daniil Glinka46%Ugo Blanchet54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalHangzhou · R32 · HardValentin Royer won 6-3 6-4Valentin Royer46%Adam Walton54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSingapore · R16 · HardElise Mertens won Elise Mertens45%Barbora Krejcikova55%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalAnkara Open - Ankara · R16 · HardHan Shi won 6-1 5-7 6-2Han Shi58%Ayla Aksu42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSan Diego 2 · R32 · HardAndres Andrade won 4-6 7-5 6-3Abedallah Shelbayh58%Andres Andrade42%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalChengdu · R32 · HardJenson Brooksby won 7-5 7-5Sebastian Baez36%Jenson Brooksby64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalSingapore · R16 · HardLeylah Fernandez won 6-4 6-3Alycia Parks29%Leylah Fernandez71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalSingapore · R16 · HardMaja Chwalinska won 6-0 6-1Oleksandra Oliynykova27%Maja Chwalinska73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalSingapore · R16 · HardMirra Andreeva won 6-2 6-2Mirra Andreeva89%Aliaksandra Sasnovich11%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,416—67%
Challenger Men3,081—63%
Challenger Women793—65%
ITF Men4,310—66%
ITF Women3,979—66%
Yesterday · 22 Sep13 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.5 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days22 Sep 2026M25 Sabadell · Q16Cian Maguire beat Toprak Avcibasi 6-4 6-2Pre-match: Cian Maguire 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.