Win Probability

Thursday, 24 September 2026
16 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchSho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston51% · 49%Toss-up · Hangzhou · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteViktoria Morvayova vs Talia Gibson77% · 23%Clear favourite · Singapore · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day16 matches168 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalHangzhou · R32 · HardHugo Gaston won 6-4 6-4Sho Shimabukuro51%Hugo Gaston49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalGenoa 2 · R16 · ClayMika Petkovic won 6-4 7-6(1)Raul Brancaccio48%Mika Petkovic52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalChengdu · R32 · HardDenis Shapovalov won 6-4 7-6(3)Tallon Griekspoor54%Denis Shapovalov46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalHangzhou · R32 · HardJaime Faria won 3-6 7-6(9) 6-4Jaime Faria56%Terence Atmane44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalKorea Open - Seoul · R16 · HardTaylah Preston won 6-4 6-1Jelena Ostapenko56%Taylah Preston44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalPlovdiv 4 · R16 · ClayAdrian Andreev won 7-6(5) 6-3Ivan Ivanov44%Adrian Andreev56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM25 Falun · QF · HardHenry Bernet won 6-2 7-6(5)Karl Friberg56%Henry Bernet44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalAnkara Open - Ankara · R16 · HardDeniz Dilek won 6-1 2-6 6-2Deniz Dilek56%Cagla Buyukakcay44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalHangzhou · R32 · HardBu Yunchaokete won 6-4 6-3Bu Yunchaokete43%Michael Zheng57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalChengdu · R32 · HardLorenzo Sonego won 6-4 6-4James Duckworth39%Lorenzo Sonego61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–3FinalChengdu · R32 · HardAdrian Mannarino won 7-6(9) 6-2Juncheng Shang62%Adrian Mannarino38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalSingapore · R16 · HardXin Yu Wang won 7-5 6-4Xin Yu Wang63%Joanna Garland37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalChengdu · R32 · HardLloyd Harris won 6-3 6-4Lloyd Harris68%Aleksandar Kovacevic32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSingapore · R16 · HardTatiana Prozorova won 4-6 7-5 6-3Tatiana Prozorova24%Alexandra Eala76%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSingapore · R16 · HardTalia Gibson won 7-6(2) 7-6(1)Talia Gibson23%Viktoria Morvayova77%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalSingapore · R16 · HardMaria Sakkari won 7-5 6-1Maria Sakkari77%Nao Hibino23%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–3
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,416—67%
Challenger Men3,081—63%
Challenger Women793—65%
ITF Men4,310—66%
ITF Women3,979—66%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.