Win Probability

Friday, 25 September 2026
20 rated matches · 12 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchJenson Brooksby vs Lorenzo Sonego50% · 50%Toss-up · Chengdu · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteMirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez83% · 17%Strong favourite · Singapore · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2012 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalChengdu · R16 · HardJenson Brooksby won 5-7 7-5 6-2Jenson Brooksby50%Lorenzo Sonego50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalTolentino Open - Tolentino · QF · ClayGuiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales won 6-4 6-3Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales50%Rebeka Masarova50%Toss-upH2H 1–2FinalM25 Sabadell · QF · ClayGerard Campana Lee won 6-3 7-5Lorenzo Giustino49%Gerard Campana Lee51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalLaver Cup - London · RR · HardCasper Ruud won 6-7(4) 6-4 10-8Casper Ruud51%Francisco Cerundolo49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 5–5FinalW35 Sharm ElSheikh · QF · HardYuliya Hatouka won 4-6 3-5Yuliya Hatouka52%Mara Guth48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalSingapore · QF · HardTalia Gibson won 6-1 4-6 6-2Maria Sakkari47%Talia Gibson53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalGenoa 2 · QF · ClayCarlo Alberto Caniato won 6-0 2-0Jay Clarke47%Carlo Alberto Caniato53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalW35 Sharm ElSheikh · QF · HardZuzanna Pawlikowska won 7-6(1) 3-6 6-3Zuzanna Pawlikowska46%Esther Adeshina54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalW50 Plovdiv · QF · ClayLoes Ebeling Koning won 6-1 6-1Loes Ebeling Koning54%Alessandra Mazzola46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLaver Cup - London · RR · HardBrandon Nakashima won 6-1 3-6 10-7Jakub Mensik56%Brandon Nakashima44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–2FinalPlovdiv 4 · QF · ClayAdrian Andreev won 6-1 6-2Adrian Andreev56%Izan Almazan Valiente44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBuenos Aires · QF · ClayJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo won 6-2 6-4Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo56%Juan Pablo Varillas44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalLaver Cup - London · RR · HardRafael Jodar won 6-2 6-3Rafael Jodar57%Alexander Bublik43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM25 Sabadell · QF · ClaySander Jong won 4-6 6-4 6-1Sander Jong58%Ioannis Xilas42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM25 Falun · SF · HardSamir Banerjee won 6-2 6-1Eero Vasa42%Samir Banerjee58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSingapore · QF · HardTatiana Prozorova won 3-6 7-5 6-4Xin Yu Wang59%Tatiana Prozorova41%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSingapore · QF · HardMaja Chwalinska won 6-2 6-2Elise Mertens63%Maja Chwalinska37%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalHangzhou · R16 · HardKyrian Jacquet won 6-2 6-3Kyrian Jacquet37%Tomas Martin Etcheverry63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalHangzhou · R16 · HardAndrey Rublev won 6-3 6-3Rinky Hijikata35%Andrey Rublev65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalSingapore · QF · HardLeylah Fernandez won 6-2 7-5Mirra Andreeva83%Leylah Fernandez17%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–3
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,416—67%
Challenger Men3,081—63%
Challenger Women793—65%
ITF Men4,310—66%
ITF Women3,979—66%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.