Win Probability

Saturday, 26 September 2026
20 rated matches · 12 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchBu Yunchaokete vs Kamil Majchrzak50% · 50%Toss-up · Hangzhou · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur82% · 18%Strong favourite · Laver Cup - London · RR · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2012 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalHangzhou · R16 · HardBu Yunchaokete won 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-2Bu Yunchaokete50%Kamil Majchrzak50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalM15 Monastir · SF · HardEtienne Donnet won 2-6 6-4Etienne Donnet50%Samuel Vincent Ruggeri50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalM25 Santa Margherita di Pula · F · ClayDaniel Michalski won 7-6(5) 6-2Daniel Michalski49%Laurent Lokoli51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalW15 Constanta · SF · ClayGiulia Safina Popa won 7-6(6) 6-2Giulia Safina Popa46%Anne Schaefer54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalKorea Open - Seoul · QF · HardKimberly Birrell won 2-6 6-2 7-5Katie Volynets55%Kimberly Birrell45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–3FinalHangzhou · R16 · HardRoman Safiullin won 5-7 6-3 6-4Quentin Halys55%Roman Safiullin45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalM25 Falun · F · HardHenry Bernet won 7-6(3) 6-4Samir Banerjee55%Henry Bernet45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW35 Sharm ElSheikh · SF · HardYuliya Hatouka won 6-4 2-6 6-1Zuzanna Pawlikowska43%Yuliya Hatouka57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalChengdu · R16 · HardLloyd Harris won 6-4 7-6(5)Valentin Vacherot57%Lloyd Harris43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSingapore · SF · HardLeylah Fernandez won 1-6 6-4 6-2Leylah Fernandez58%Maja Chwalinska42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalHangzhou · R16 · HardColeman Wong won 7-6(2) 4-6 6-3Coleman Wong59%Adolfo Daniel Vallejo41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalChengdu · R16 · HardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won 6-4 6-4Juan Manuel Cerundolo38%Alejandro Davidovich Fokina62%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalChengdu · R16 · HardAlexandre Muller won 7-6(3) 6-1Federico Cina62%Alexandre Muller38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalSt. Tropez · SF · HardTitouan Droguet won 6-3 5-7 6-2Titouan Droguet37%Dino Prizmic63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalSingapore · SF · HardTalia Gibson won Tatiana Prozorova36%Talia Gibson64%Slight edgeNo prior meetingsFinalBuenos Aires · SF · ClayAlex Barrena won 6-4 6-3Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo65%Alex Barrena35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalLaver Cup - London · RR · HardLearner Tien won 6-3 2-6 10-7Flavio Cobolli33%Learner Tien67%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalHangzhou · R16 · HardDaniil Medvedev won 7-6(6) 6-3Daniil Medvedev81%Valentin Royer19%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalLaver Cup - London · RR · HardAlex De Minaur won 2-6 7-6(5) 11-9Alexander Zverev82%Alex De Minaur18%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 4–8FinalLaver Cup - London · RR · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 6-3 4-6 13-11Carlos Alcaraz82%Taylor Fritz18%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 6–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,416—67%
Challenger Men3,081—63%
Challenger Women793—65%
ITF Men4,310—66%
ITF Women3,979—66%
Yesterday · 25 Sep12 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.4 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days25 Sep 2026M25 Pardubice · R16Claus Piening beat Kalin Ivanovski 7-5 1-2Pre-match: Claus Piening 11%Surprise score89

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.