Win Probability

Sunday, 27 September 2026
15 rated matches · 10 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchMaya Joint vs Kimberly Birrell50% · 50%Toss-up · Korea Open - Seoul · F · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexandre Muller79% · 21%Clear favourite · Chengdu · QF · Analyze match →
Rated that day15 matches1510 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalKorea Open - Seoul · F · HardKimberly Birrell won 6-4 6-2Maya Joint50%Kimberly Birrell50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalM25 Sabadell · F · ClayGerard Campana Lee won 6-3 6-2Gerard Campana Lee49%Sander Jong51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalSingapore · F · HardLeylah Fernandez won 7-5 6-0Leylah Fernandez52%Talia Gibson48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalTolentino Open - Tolentino · F · ClayJulia Grabher won 7-6(5) 6-2Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales53%Julia Grabher47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalHangzhou · QF · HardRoman Safiullin won 6-3 6-3Roman Safiullin56%Bu Yunchaokete44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBuenos Aires · F · ClayAlex Barrena won 6-4 6-0Alex Barrena56%Facundo Mena44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalHangzhou · QF · HardKyrian Jacquet won 7-6(12) 6-4Fabian Marozsan57%Kyrian Jacquet43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalChengdu · QF · HardHubert Hurkacz won 7-6(10) 6-4Lloyd Harris38%Hubert Hurkacz62%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalW15 Monastir · F · HardEkaterina Dotsenko won 6-4 6-7(5) 2-0Ellie Daniels63%Ekaterina Dotsenko37%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalSt. Tropez · F · HardTitouan Droguet won 6-3 7-5Titouan Droguet64%Harold Mayot36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalW35 Santa Margherita di Pula · F · ClayAlisa Oktiabreva won 7-5 6-3Alisa Oktiabreva67%Alena Kovackova33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalHangzhou · QF · HardAndrey Rublev won 6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-1Hugo Gaston29%Andrey Rublev71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalChengdu · QF · HardDenis Shapovalov won 6-7(6) 6-3 6-2Adrian Mannarino29%Denis Shapovalov71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–1FinalHangzhou · QF · HardDaniil Medvedev won 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3Daniil Medvedev77%Coleman Wong23%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalChengdu · QF · HardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won 6-1 7-5Alexandre Muller21%Alejandro Davidovich Fokina79%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 26 Sep8 of 19 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days26 Sep 2026W15 Maanshan · SFYuhan Wang beat Daria Khomutsianskaya 6-2 6-0Pre-match: Yuhan Wang 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.