Win Probability

Monday, 28 September 2026
8 rated matches · 5 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchElena Ruxandra Bertea vs Lucrezia Stefanini50% · 50%Toss-up · Adana Open - Adana · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Nikoloz Basilashvili76% · 24%Clear favourite · Chengdu · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day8 matches85 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,480—67%
Challenger Men3,176—64%
Challenger Women822—65%
ITF Men4,395—67%
ITF Women4,082—66%
Yesterday · 27 Sep10 of 14 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 8.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days26 Sep 2026W15 Maanshan · SFYuhan Wang beat Daria Khomutsianskaya 6-2 6-0Pre-match: Yuhan Wang 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.