Win Probability

Tuesday, 29 September 2026
10 rated matches · 6 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchLorenzo Giustino vs John Sperle48% · 52%Toss-up · Bari · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteDaniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev63% · 37%Slight edge · Hangzhou · F · Analyze match →
Rated that day10 matches106 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 28 Sep5 of 8 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 5.0 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days28 Sep 2026Columbus · Q16Oliver Okonkwo beat Shunsuke Mitsui 6-4 6-1Pre-match: Oliver Okonkwo 18%Surprise score82

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.