Win Probability

Wednesday, 30 September 2026
20 rated matches · 3 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchElena Gabriela Ruse vs Lilli Tagger50% · 50%Toss-up · Beijing · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteArthur Fils vs Luca Van Assche83% · 17%Strong favourite · Tokyo · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches203 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalBeijing · R128 · HardElena Gabriela Ruse won 6-4 6-2Elena Gabriela Ruse50%Lilli Tagger50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalTokyo · R32 · HardValentin Vacherot won 7-6(2) 7-6(4)Valentin Vacherot49%Alexander Blockx51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R128 · HardViktorija Golubic won 6-3 6-1Viktorija Golubic51%Elvina Kalieva49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R128 · HardYue Yuan won 6-2 6-3Oleksandra Oliynykova49%Yue Yuan51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R128 · HardJanice Tjen won 2-6 7-5 6-4Janice Tjen53%Anhelina Kalinina47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R32 · HardBu Yunchaokete won 6-2 5-7 6-4Juan Manuel Cerundolo46%Bu Yunchaokete54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalBeijing · R128 · HardMaria Timofeeva won 6-3 6-3Darja Vidmanova43%Maria Timofeeva57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalTokyo · R32 · HardMatteo Arnaldi won 2-6 6-4 6-4Matteo Arnaldi43%Rei Sakamoto57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalBeijing · R128 · HardSinja Kraus won 6-3 3-6 7-5Maya Joint63%Sinja Kraus37%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R128 · HardDayana Yastremska won 6-3 6-4Caty Mcnally64%Dayana Yastremska36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 3–0FinalBeijing · R128 · HardPolina Kudermetova won 6-7(2) 6-3 6-2Ye Xin Ma36%Polina Kudermetova64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBeijing · R128 · HardLinda Fruhvirtova won 6-2 6-3Zhuoxuan Bai65%Linda Fruhvirtova35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R128 · HardMaddison Inglis won 6-4 6-4Maddison Inglis34%Zeynep Sonmez66%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R128 · HardRenata Zarazua won 7-6(4) 6-3Anna Bondar66%Renata Zarazua34%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalBeijing · R128 · HardTaylah Preston won 6-2 7-6(4)Taylah Preston67%Tamara Korpatsch33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalBeijing · R128 · HardMagdalena Frech won 7-5 3-6 6-4Elsa Jacquemot31%Magdalena Frech69%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalBeijing · R32 · HardKaren Khachanov won 6-3 6-3Karen Khachanov30%Felix Auger Aliassime70%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 4–2FinalBeijing · R128 · HardAliaksandra Sasnovich won 6-1 6-4Aliaksandra Sasnovich30%Talia Gibson70%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalTokyo · R32 · HardAlejandro Tabilo won 6-1 6-2Alejandro Tabilo28%Tommy Paul72%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalTokyo · R32 · HardArthur Fils won 6-3 6-2Arthur Fils83%Luca Van Assche17%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,396—67%
Challenger Men3,053—63%
Challenger Women786—66%
ITF Men4,224—66%
ITF Women3,874—66%
Yesterday · 29 Sep3 of 10 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 5.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days29 Sep 2026M25 Darwin · R32Casey Hoole beat Moerani Bouzige 6-7(3) 6-4 6-4Pre-match: Casey Hoole 14%Surprise score86

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.