Win Probability

Sunday, 13 September 2026
13 rated matches · 10 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchIlya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov50% · 50%Toss-up · Shanghai · F · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton79% · 21%Clear favourite · US Open · F · Analyze match →
Rated that day13 matches1310 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalShanghai · F · HardIlya Ivashka won 6-4 3-6 7-6(7)Ilya Ivashka50%Marat Sharipov50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalIstanbul · F · HardMax Basing won 6-3 1-6 6-0Jay Dylan Hara Friend51%Max Basing49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalTulln · F · ClayMika Brunold won 6-4 6-3Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva46%Mika Brunold54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalGenoa · F · ClayThiago Seyboth Wild won 6-4 6-2Thiago Seyboth Wild54%Pedro Martinez46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalM25 Pozzuoli · F · HardMenelaos Efstathiou won 6-2 7-6(3)Leonardo Rossi45%Menelaos Efstathiou55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · F · ClayRositsa Dencheva won 7-5 6-4Rositsa Dencheva55%Alevtina Ibragimova45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R32 · HardPanna Udvardy won 6-4 6-7(6) 6-2Panna Udvardy45%Lois Boisson55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R32 · HardJanice Tjen won 7-6(6) 6-2Darja Vidmanova45%Janice Tjen55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCassis · F · HardTitouan Droguet won 6-4 7-6(3)Titouan Droguet58%Mark Lajal42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalW35 Reus · F · ClayLucia Cortez Llorca won 6-7(5) 6-4 6-1Lucia Cortez Llorca36%Ariana Geerlings64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R32 · HardAlycia Parks won 6-3 1-6 7-5Alycia Parks70%Varvara Lepchenko30%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalGuadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · R32 · HardPeyton Stearns won 6-3 6-2Peyton Stearns74%Emiliana Arango26%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · F · HardAlexander Zverev won 6-3 7-6(2) 5-7 6-2Alexander Zverev79%Ben Shelton21%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–6
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,499—67%
Challenger Men3,228—64%
Challenger Women844—65%
ITF Men4,432—67%
ITF Women4,128—66%
Yesterday · 12 Sep8 of 15 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 8.6 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days11 Sep 2026M25 Sapporo · QFJ. Roddick beat Yunseong Chung 6-3 6-4Pre-match: J. Roddick 14%Surprise score86

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.