Win Probability

Saturday, 12 September 2026
15 rated matches · 14 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchDigvijaypratap Singh vs Karan Singh50% · 50%Toss-up · M15 Bali · SF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAriana Geerlings vs Francesca Pace66% · 34%Slight edge · W35 Reus · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day15 matches1514 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalM15 Bali · SF · HardKaran Singh won 6-4 7-6(2)Digvijaypratap Singh50%Karan Singh50%Toss-upH2H 3–1FinalM15 Monastir · SF · HardCesar Bouchelaghem won 6-3 6-3Cesar Bouchelaghem50%Kasra Rahmani50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalM15 Nonthaburi · SF · HardThanapet Chanta won 6-4 6-2Thanapet Chanta49%Pawit Sornlaksup51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–3FinalSeville · SF · ClayFacundo Diaz Acosta won 4-6 6-3 7-6(1)Jaume Munar52%Facundo Diaz Acosta48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalTulln · SF · ClayMika Brunold won 6-0 6-2Vitaliy Sachko47%Mika Brunold53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM25 Plaisir · SF · HardSamir Banerjee won 7-5 6-3Samir Banerjee54%Patrick Zahraj46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalCassis · SF · HardTitouan Droguet won 6-7(4) 6-2 6-4Titouan Droguet55%Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalTulln · SF · ClayJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva won 6-2 6-3Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva56%Alex Barrena44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 4–1FinalW15 Yeongwol · SF · HardDabin Kim won 5-7 6-2 6-4Ha Eum Lee41%Dabin Kim59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · SF · HardBen Shelton won 4-6 6-3 6-3 7-5Frances Tiafoe37%Ben Shelton63%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 4–1FinalUS Open · F · HardElena Rybakina won 6-4 5-7 6-2Aryna Sabalenka63%Elena Rybakina37%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 8–10FinalMontreux Nestle Open - Montreux · SF · ClayNoma Noha Akugue won 7-6(2) 6-3Noma Noha Akugue36%Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalGenoa · SF · ClayPedro Martinez won 2-6 6-4 7-5Laslo Djere64%Pedro Martinez36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–5FinalKia Open - Barranquilla · F · HardClaire Liu won 6-0 2-6 7-5Claire Liu64%Anna Blinkova36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalW35 Reus · SF · ClayAriana Geerlings won 6-2 7-5Ariana Geerlings66%Francesca Pace34%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,499—67%
Challenger Men3,228—64%
Challenger Women844—65%
ITF Men4,432—67%
ITF Women4,128—66%
Yesterday · 11 Sep7 of 16 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 9.5 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days11 Sep 2026M25 Sapporo · QFJ. Roddick beat Yunseong Chung 6-3 6-4Pre-match: J. Roddick 14%Surprise score86

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.