Win Probability

Friday, 11 September 2026
16 rated matches · 11 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchKuan Yi Lee vs Keisuke Saitoh51% · 49%Toss-up · M25 Sapporo · QF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov90% · 10%Strong favourite · US Open · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day16 matches1611 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalM25 Sapporo · QF · HardKeisuke Saitoh won 6-0 6-2Kuan Yi Lee51%Keisuke Saitoh49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalW15 Yeongwol · QF · HardYujin Kim won 6-7(2) 6-2 6-2Yujin Kim52%Kanon Sawashiro48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalW35 Reus · QF · ClayLucia Cortez Llorca won 6-1 6-4Lucia Cortez Llorca48%Daria Yesypchuk52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalGenoa · QF · ClayMatej Dodig won 6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(5)Matej Dodig47%Enrico Dalla Valle53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalTulln · QF · ClayVitaliy Sachko won 6-3 1-6 6-2Matias Soto54%Vitaliy Sachko46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · QF · ClayRositsa Dencheva won 7-5 6-2Rositsa Dencheva45%Maria Lourdes Carle55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalMontreux Nestle Open - Montreux · QF · ClayGuiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales won 6-3 1-6 6-1Clara Burel55%Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · QF · ClayAlevtina Ibragimova won 6-2 6-3Aurora Zantedeschi57%Alevtina Ibragimova43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalW35 Reus · QF · ClayMarianne Argyrokastriti won 6-3 6-3Marianne Argyrokastriti42%Matilde Paoletti58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalIstanbul · QF · HardJay Dylan Hara Friend won 3-6 6-4 6-3Yanki Erel58%Jay Dylan Hara Friend42%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalGenoa · QF · ClayLaslo Djere won 6-1 5-7 7-5Laslo Djere60%Stefanos Sakellaridis40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalKia Open - Barranquilla · SF · HardClaire Liu won 6-2 6-4Leolia Jeanjean40%Claire Liu60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · SF · HardElena Rybakina won 3-6 6-4 6-4Coco Gauff39%Elena Rybakina61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalIstanbul · QF · HardMaks Kasnikowski won 6-0 2-6 6-1Francesco Maestrelli37%Maks Kasnikowski63%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · SF · HardAryna Sabalenka won 7-5 6-2Aryna Sabalenka73%Jessica Pegula27%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 10–4FinalUS Open · SF · HardAlexander Zverev won 6-3 7-6(7) 7-6(6)Alexander Zverev90%Karen Khachanov10%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–7
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,499—67%
Challenger Men3,228—64%
Challenger Women844—65%
ITF Men4,432—67%
ITF Women4,128—66%
Yesterday · 10 Sep6 of 7 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 4.2 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days10 Sep 2026M25 Sintra · R16Miguel Semedo beat Gian Luca Tanner 6-2 6-1Pre-match: Miguel Semedo 9%Surprise score91

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.